On Sunday I rode my 2nd criterium event of the year in Livermore, California. It was another combined Cat-3/Cat-4 race, so there were over 90 riders signed up and the announcer said 88 who started.
The course was roughly triangular, with 3 90-degree turns and a couple of gentle turns on the straights. Each lap of the course was 1.2 miles, and the "back straight" had a bit of a headwind during my race.
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| Here is the start of the race, in perfect California springtime conditions. |
The race started off briskly, and with so many riders, I wanted to stay as far forward in the field as possible to avoid any trouble/crashes. Early on, I created a solo move, and dangled off the front of the field for a short while.
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| My early move was short-lived, as one would expect with a field of nearly 90 riders. |
After being caught by the pack, I maintained a position near the front of the field.
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| In order to protect a position near the front of the field, one must sometimes take a pull on the very front. That takes some energy, but maintaining a position in the top 10 or so riders is worth it. |
Unfortunately, there was a crash which required a rider take an ambulance ride, so the race was neutralized and the remaining riders were re-started. Here I am, back at the start line.
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| Back at the start line, I joked with the motor ref (his wheel is visible on the right edge) if I would have time to call my insurance agent and change to a health insurance policy with a lower deductible before the race restarted. |
Once the course was clear of emergency vehicles, we were started again, with either 5 or 6 laps to go. There was much confusion about this, both before we were restarted, and after we rode through the start-finish area a lap after restarting.
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| At the re-start, I was near the back of the pack. |
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| I moved back up to the front of the field after the restart to stay safe and keep a close eye on dangerous moves. |
A lap or two after the restart, there was a prime lap, where the top rider on that lap would take home a bag of coffee or some such prize. I wasn't terribly interested in the prime, until two riders from the same team took it and then started pulling away from the field. At this point, I decided, it's go-time!
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| I bridged up to the two riders, let them know we had a sizable gap, and encouraged them to keep driving the pace. I rotated through and all three of us worked well together. |
At this point, the late breakaway was established. Whether we could have continued to work together and held off the field is a question that will remain a mystery. I'd give it about a 25% chance we would have stayed clear and battled it out among the three of us for the podium spots, and about a 75% chance that a few riders in the pack would bury themselves to bring us back.
This is where the probabilities in bike racing become interesting. Assuming a flat probability distribution of winning among riders, in a race with 88 starters, each rider has about a 1.13% chance of winning. Being in a 3-man breakaway with a 25% chance of staying away results in about an 8% chance of winning. If the gap between the breakaway and the field becomes insurmountable, then the probability of winning goes to 33%.
While turning myself inside out to bridge up to the breakaway, I was not doing any statistical analysis of the odds of winning in a variety of different finishing scenarios. I was simply reacting to a gut feeling that said this move was where I wanted to be. I didn't know who the other riders in the break were, but my split-second assessment of the other two guys and my history finishing bike races in small groups told me this was a really good place for me to be.
At any rate, with a lap to go, the officials told us to neutralize because there had been another crash on the course. Arg!! This was a serious frustration for me, since by neutralizing, the field would catch us and then the finish would favor a rider who had been sitting in, following wheels, and saving energy rather than turning himself inside out trying to make a breakaway stick.
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| After neutralizing, I find it interesting to look at the elbow angles of the three of us in the breakaway compared to the riders in the field. We have sat up while they are still in racing positions, making sure they catch us. |
After the neutralization, we were re-started with two laps to go. I had enough steam to make one move to the front, took a pull, and then was off the back for the last lap and a half.
As one of the Colorado race announcers often says, in order to win a race, you have to risk losing it. I took my chance with the breakaway on Sunday, did most everything right, but it didn't work out like I hoped. However, I am making progress in terms of my racing technique, so that win will be along before too long.
